A lot of houses in northern MA and southern NH now have trump flags, signs, etc. This is an insane change from a few years ago and unthinkable from 2020 perspective. I don’t think it’s for sure to go red in 2024, I think it’s way more than just 40%.

"A lot of houses" is not much of a data point.

Do you live in NH? Also, reread my previous comment. I said I think it’s higher than 40% - probably around 50/50 ish chances. So I voted up to raise the probability

Do you live in NH?

No. I'm pointing out that "a lot of houses" doesn't tell me anything. The fact that you drove around there and saw more Trump signs than you remember for years ago is a far worse data point than even an individual NH poll, so it doesn't change the probability by much.

Also, reread my previous comment.

I'm not sure what you think I misread. You are saying that Trump has about a 50% chance of winning NH, which is higher than this market believes, yes?

Amen! Been seeing them. NH

Someone should change which states are being displayed as "swing states" on the manifold.markets/politics page - New Hampshire is now more of a swing state than Georgia, for example.

My justification for not holding Democrat.

New Hampshire has a greater tendency to buck national incumbents than most other states. The incumbent party’s margin decreased (from the previous election) in every election since 2000, or 10 of the last 12 presidential elections.

NH is about 40% independent voters, so a sufficiently unpopular administration could cause a several point shift away from that party or even cause a flip.

Arbitrage: