Will a Republican win New Hampshire in the 2024 POTUS election?
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250
Dec 1
15%
chance

NH is generally considered a swing state, though Democrats have performed very strongly there in the last couple of elections. Will Republicans reverse that trend?

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bought Ṁ30 of NO

I think New Hampshire is only winnable in a really good year for Republicans (or if Republicans have a really strong candidate like Sununu). Biden won it by almost as large a margin as Trump won Ohio and Iowa and a much larger margin than Trump won Florida by. Now all three of those states are usually considered red states that a Democrat could only win in a really good year. In 2022, it was barely even competitive.

I think New Hampshire could go red if it was a Republican they really liked, but Trump or DeSantis is not going to cut it for them. 538 polls show Sununu leading Biden by a lot in a hypothetical, but the Biden vs Trump/DeSantis polls give Biden a fair lead.