Which of Trump's 12 Jurors will leave the Jury next?

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Ṁ9420

resolved May 30

100%98.9%

None of the 12 jurors leave.

0.0%

Juror 1: The foreman. Lives in West Harlem and works in sales. Married, likes the outdoors, and gets news from The New York Times, Fox News and MSNBC. Had heard of some of Trump's other cases, but did not have an opinion of him.

0.5%

Juror 2: A man who works in investment banking and lives in Hell's Kitchen. Follows Trump, Michael Cohen and Kellyanne Conway on social media. Believes Trump has done some good for the country, but that he can be an impartial juror.

0.0%

Juror 3: A young man who has lived in Chelsea for five years, works as an attorney in corporate law, and likes to hike and run. He gets news from The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and Google but does not follow the news closely.

0.0%

Juror 4: A man who’s a security engineer from the upper west side, who and likes woodworking and metalworking. Said he has no strong feelings about Trump.

0.0%

Juror 5: A young woman from Harlem, a teacher. Lives with her boyfriend, loves writing, theater & traveling. She gets news from Google/TikTok and listens to podcasts on relationships & pop culture. Appreciates that Trump "speaks his mind".

0.1%

Juror 6: A young woman who lives in Chelsea and works as a software engineer. She gets news from The New York Times, Google, Facebook and TikTok. She said she probably has different beliefs than Mr. Trump, but that “this is a free country.”

0.0%

Juror 7: A man from the Upper East Side, a civil litigator. Aware of Trump’s other cases but does not have an opinion about Mr. Trump’s character. Said he agrees with some Trump administration policies, and disagrees with others.

0.0%

Juror 8: A man who’s retired but worked for a major wealth manager. He said he enjoys skiing, fly fishing and yoga. He said he reads The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal and watches CNBC and the BBC.

0.1%

Juror 9: A woman who is a speech therapist, gets news from CNN and likes reality TV podcasts. Said “he was our president. Everyone knows who he is,” adding that when he was in office “everyone was kind of talking about politics."

0.0%

Juror 10: A man from Murray Hill who works in commerce, reads The New York Times and listens to podcasts on behavioral psychology. He said he does not have a strong opinion on Trump.

0.1%

Juror 11: A woman, a product manager from Upper Manhattan, who reads Google, business and fashion news. She said she does not have strong opinions about Mr. Trump but added, “I don’t like his persona, how he presents himself in public.”

0.0%

Juror 12: A woman from the Upper East Side who works as a physical therapist who likes hiking, running, tennis and listening to live music or podcasts about religion and sports.

0.0%Other

In Trump's Manhattan Hush Money Trial, two jurors who were sworn in have already been excused and replaced. There is now a full Jury of 12, but a few more alternates will still be sworn in in case any of those 12 need to also be replaced.

While the jury is anonymous, reporters in the courtroom have told us a fair bit about them. See NYT and NBC.

If we learn that another juror has left the jury, this market will resolve to that juror. If there is reporting of multiple jurors leaving the jury at the same time, this market will resolve to an equal split of those jurors. The "other" option exists to cover unknown unknowns, and should resolve "no" in most scenarios.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ500 YES

@ManifoldPolitics resolves to None of the12

How can you be watching Fox News and MSNBC without forming any sort of opinion on Trump? My guess is that they just doesn't follow politics but want to come off as an enlightened centrist type. We need to normalize "I don't follow politics" again (like running/religion juror)

@StopPunting I kinda read a wide spectrum of news (from leftist to far-right outlets), which I guess makes me a centrist with a wide variance of views.

But this is just to show what @RichardHanania said in his great article: "Liberals read, conservatives watch TV." More conservatives watch MSNBC than liberals. And more liberals read the WSJ than conservatives.

bought Ṁ20 YES

Quite frankly I'm surprised the prosecution let this man on the jury.

@Najawin I think the first Juror 2 asked to be excused and he replaced her?

@Joshua No, that's true, but they could still try to strike, right?

@Najawin Yeah sure sounds like they dropped the ball there

sold Ṁ8 YES

@Joshua Oh, never mind. WaPo says he listens to Mueller She Wrote. lmao, he's a lock.

bought Ṁ1 YES

@Najawin What does lock mean in this context?

@TheAllMemeingEye Oh, I think he's very likely to vote to convict, given that info.

@Joshua Called it.

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