Will all three of Trump's remaining criminal cases actually go to trial?
Will all three of Trump's remaining criminal cases actually go to trial?
32
1kṀ8126
Dec 7
2%
chance

After being convicted in the New York hush money case, Trump has three trials left: The D.C. case over Jan. 6 and his attempts to overturn the 2020 election, the classified documents case in Florida, and the racketeering case in Georgia for attempting to pressure Brad Raffensperger into falsifying election results. Most or all of these cases will not happen until after the 2024 election, meaning that Trump may be able to force the Justice Department to drop their cases against him if he is reelected in 2024.

This market resolves YES if all three cases eventually go to trial, regardless of whether there is a guilty verdict, an acquittal, a hung jury, or a mixed verdict. Only one charge from each case needs to actually be tried - if all but one are dropped, it still counts.

Resolves NO if at least one of the cases is dropped or settled out of court, for any reason, or if Trump dies before one of the cases goes to trial.

If Trump is indicted on even more charges in the future, they have no impact on this market.

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9mo

I unresolved this because the dismissal of the classified documents case is being appealed, so it may go to trial after all.

1y

Don't understand why this is lower than Biden reelection chances. Shouldn't they all go to trial unless Trump makes the DoJ drop the federal ones?

1y

@PlasmaBallin the classified documents case in Florida has a pro trump judge who is delaying the trail a lot and giving serious consideration to motions to dismiss, for example due to selective prosecution.

So seems about right to me.

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