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MANIFOLD
If James Talarico is elected, will he serve a full 6 year term?
5
Ṁ1kṀ1.7k
2033
85%
chance

This is a conditional market.

  • Precondition: If James Talarico is not elected to the U.S. Senate in the November 3, 2026 Texas general election, this market will resolve to N/A.

  • If elected, the market will resolve to YES if James Talarico is sworn in and serves continuously for the full six-year term (until the expiration of the term on January 3, 2033).

  • The market will resolve to NO if he vacates his seat before January 3, 2033, for any reason (including resignation, expulsion, appointment/election to another office, or death).

  • Official records from the United States Senate and the Biographical Directory of the United States Congress will serve as the primary sources of truth.

  • If a senate term length is changed, this will resolve based on if James Talarico is a member of the senate on January 3 2033.

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