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MANIFOLD
If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will the Supreme Court have more than nine justices before Jan 20, 2033?
1
Ṁ1kṀ50
2033
17%
chance

Condition: the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice). If anyone else wins, this market resolves N/A.

Resolves YES if, at any time before January 20, 2033, more than nine justices are serving on the U.S. Supreme Court at once. Resolves NO otherwise.

This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if a Republican wins the presidency in 2028. Comparing the two shows what the market thinks the 2028 presidential winner changes.

Starting probability is a seed, not a forecast: anchored on public prediction-market prices where a related market exists, otherwise a prior.

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