Resolution will be based on the National 538 average comparing Biden, Trump, and RFK Jr.

This market resolves to the month in which the 538 average is updated to show Biden in the lead. This is based on the date that 538 is updated, not the date the polling took place.

Fine print:

• If Biden is only temporarily shown in the lead do to some error in the data or methodology which is reverted within 7 days so that he is no longer shown as having been in the lead, that redacted lead will not count for this market's resolution.

• An update which shows Biden as having been in the lead more than 30 days before the update, such as a change to 538's averaging methodology in June which shows Trump as having been in the lead in February, would also not resolve this market.

• If this polling average becomes indefinitely unavailable, such as if 538 shuts down, the market will resolve to "Not before November".

See also:

• The Manifold Politics Forecast

• The Swing State Dashboard

• The Polling Dashboard