Will evidence emerge that Kalshi is at least partially responsible for PredictIt losing CFTC approval?
22
153
540
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Nuno's forecasting newsletter does a great job of breaking down what happened and providing some context: https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-july-2022

PredictiIt's CEO is planning to give a talk on SSG's podcast in a few hours which could be revealing? https://twitter.com/keendawg/status/1556657200256487424

Resolution criteria

It is hard to say what evidence will be substantial enough for this market to resolve to YES. We might resolve it to a partial % if evidence comes out that is "substantial" but doesn't completely prove it beyond doubt.

As described in Nuno's newsletter a Freedom of Information request has been filed so a resolution might be based largely based on the outcome of that.

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How might you resolve this market "No"? If there is no negative resolution criteria, then there isn't much to encourage profit from betting no.

I think there's two reasonable options:

  • Resolve NO at the close date, end of 2022, or

  • Resolve once the FOIA request info comes out, because the description says "As described in Nuno's newsletter a Freedom of Information request has been filed so a resolution might be based largely based on the outcome of that."

predicted NO

@NathanpmYoung oops I made this market when I was still dumb at resolution criteria
-David

Resolving No from this poll

predicted YES

Bidding this up after receiving info from a trusted source.

From the recent Kalshi CFTC application

Contracts on political control of Congress available to US participants have been trading for nearly a decade. Since 2014, a similar contract has been available for trading on an unregistered trading venue that purports to operate under a No-Action Letter that was issued by the Division of Market Oversight in 2014 and granted relief to operate without complying with a number of aspects of the Commodity Exchange Act and Commission Regulations.

The Exchange is proposing to bring such contracts onto a fully regulated exchange operating under the core principles applicable to a DCM, with participant funds safeguarded at a DCO operating under the core principles applicable to a DCO. The Exchange believes it is time to offer these widely used but unregulated contracts on a fully regulated basis so that U.S. persons can hedge risks arising from political control on a market with robust safeguards and transparency.

predicted NO

@ahalekelly correct me if I am wrong, but this seems like a NO for this market

What? It reads to me like Kalshi trying to bring PredictIt to the CFTC's attention which is weak yes evidence. Unless you mean that this evidence makes it less likely that there is other evidence?

Similar market with slightly different criteria: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-foia-request-reveal-that-kal