If we launch a token in 2022, will it have a market cap of $20M by Jan 2023?
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Ṁ2835
resolved Jan 11
Resolved
N/A
Resolves YES if Manifold Markets (or an affiliated company or institution) launches a crypto token to the public before the end of 2022, and it has a market cap of 20 million USD or greater by the end of Jan 2023. Resolves NO if Manifold launches a token in 2022, and it has a market cap less than $20M by the end of Jan 2023, or if there isn't a well-defined market cap or market price per token at that time. Resolves N/A if Manifold does not launch a token in 2022. #ManifoldMarkets #crypto
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predicted NO

@ManifoldMarkets This should resolve n/a as far as I can tell.

getting out with a profit because N/A looks increasingly likely.

predicted NO

@Adam Doesn't N/A reverse everything in the market, including locked in profits and losses?

Though I guess selling now gives you more capital to invest in the meantime.

predicted YES

@Adam Profits are paid back if the market resolves N/A.

@SG ah. well, that's disappointing.

predicted NO

@SG Really? That seems counter-intuitive. How does it work? Is it documented somewhere?

predicted NO

@Sjlver Bottom of this page: https://help.manifold.markets/c69e1194903747f2aa300ae396dc0259

I highly suggest doing this fwiw - basically it is free money
maybe wait for BTC to be back over 40k though
what would it do
Manifold's valuation would instantly 10x.
It definitely would. Polymarket was valuated at $1 billion last year...
Like in the game monopoly, I am mortgaging this property to buy something else. :-)
more like $200 Million
In this economy, are you kidding me?!
Uh, such as an ethereum contract that keeps track of how many of that token each user has.
Does it count if you mint a fungible token that exchanges for M$? If someone else does?
does this resolve true if it hits $20M USD at any point between now and jan 2023? or only if it's worth at least $20M USD on Jan 31, 2023?

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