Will a new crypto memecoin reach $100 billion in market cap in 2025?

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Jan 1

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This is Kevin's high-confidence prediction from the 1/3/25 episode of the "Hard Fork" podcast.

Market will resolve to yes if a crypto memecoin created in 2025 reaches $100 billion in market cap by the end of the year, even briefly. Otherwise, it resolves to no.

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I’ve seen the hype around memecoins before, and while some have reached astonishing valuations, hitting $100 billion in 2025 feels ambitious. That said, I’ve learned never to underestimate the power of community-driven momentum in crypto. If the right mix of hype, celebrity backing, and FOMO lines up, anything is possible. Personally, I try not to chase speculative bets blindly. Instead, I focus on risk management and keeping my assets safe — for example, knowing whats a cold wallet and how to use one. No matter how wild the market gets, protecting holdings should always come first

In the podcast you mention a newly released memecoin will hit 100 billion market cap, that means coins already released by the end of 2024 don't qualify? So memecoins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu would not resolve this market correct?