Will OpenAI's event on Monday exceed Manifold's expectations?

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resolved May 16

Resolved

YES

ALL

A poll is now being conducted to measure Manifold's expectations for OpenAI's event on Monday, 5/13:

After the event, a second poll will be run asking how exciting the event was on a scale from 1 to 5.

If the average rating of the post-event poll is higher than the average rating of the expectations poll, this market will resolve YES. Otherwise, this market will resolve NO.

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OpenAI

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Please resolve! @ManifoldAI

Average expected rating: (1*5+2*20+4*30+4*13+5*2)/(77-7) = 3.24/5

Average post-even rating: (1*6+2*27+4*39+4*40+5*19)/(172-41) = 3.60/5

Resolves YES!

Post event poll!

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