If OpenAI and/or Microsoft officially confirm their plans to build something broadly similar to the rumored "Stargate" project by the end of 2024, this market resolves YES.
Examples of cases which would count for a YES resolution:
Any major AI data center/supercomputer project officially named "Stargate", or confirmed to have been codenamed "Stargate".
Any AI data center/supercomputer project that is confirmed to cost over 20 billion dollars in total, regardless of what it is named.
The project does not have to be fully in motion, confirmation of the plan existing on the record is still sufficient for a YES resolution.
If these criteria are not met by market close, this market resolves NO.
The US-based supercomputer, known as "Stargate," would be the centerpiece of a five-phase plan focused on a series of supercomputer installations the companies plan to build in the next six years, the outlet reported. Stargate, which would be phase 5 of the plan, could launch as soon as 2028, people involved in the proposal told The Information.
The supercomputer could be 100 times more expensive than the largest data centers currently in operation, per the report. The project signals the massive amount of money likely to be poured into the industry as artificial intelligence continues to evolve in the coming years.
i have very weak priors on the cost of a supercompute cluster. but meta will order 340k, h100s and if you put them in one data center that would be 3bn in gpus alone. double the cost for cpu rack etc and then add multiply by 3 for the cost of the data center add we are already above the 20bn in the resolution description.
assume that this is just a regular part of azure expansion and honestly, it seems reasonably possible that this could be announced in 2024? like 70%?