US poverty will be higher in late 2021 than it was in late 2020 #FuturePerfect2021

Question

From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021

I’ve written a lot about the rise in poverty this year since enhanced unemployment insurance (the $600 per week top-up included in the initial Covid-19 relief bill) expired at the end of July, and the projections that it will be rising more still by January. The basics are simple: The US is in a recession, the extremely generous stimulus policies of April through July were so extensive as to actually reduce poverty despite that recession, but since the federal government stopped helping things got progressively worse.

The end-of-2020 deal in Congress included a more modest, $300/week UI benefit boost and some modest direct cash payments to households, which should help reduce poverty temporarily. But I fear that the deal, which looks to expire at the end of March, will result in a similar dynamic as the 2020 stimulus: a brief improvement, followed by deterioration upon its expiration, and gridlock in Congress that prevents further progress.

To be specific, for this prediction I’ll be relying on two monthly measures of poverty: one from the Center on Poverty and Social Policy at Columbia, and one by economists Bruce Meyer, James X. Sullivan, and Jeehoon Han. —DM

Jan 1, 9:41pm: 2021 with lowest poverty rate on record https://www.vox.com/22600143/poverty-us-covid-19-pandemic-stimulus-checks

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 2, 2022 by Manifold Markets prediction market.

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