Late-night shows are often described as the canaries in the coal mine of democracy. Because they thrive on satire, political critique, and cultural irreverence, they are among the first media formats to face pressure when politics, advertisers, or networks tighten the reins.

When censorship, corporate caution, or populist backlash grows, it often manifests first in late-night. Hosts get suspended, contracts are cut short, or formats quietly disappear. What happens on those stages after midnight tells us a great deal about the health of public discourse.

This prediction market exists because the U.S. late-night landscape in 2025 has entered a period of upheaval.

Stephen Colbert’s The Late Show with Stephen Colbert has been cancelled as of July 2025, with the show ending in May 2026.

Jimmy Kimmel’s Jimmy Kimmel Live! has been suspended indefinitely by ABC in September 2025 following controversial remarks and pressure from FCC, affiliate networks etc.

Seth Meyers just got his Late Night contract extended by NBC. However, his renewal sparked political backlash: Donald Trump publicly criticized NBC’s decision, saying Meyers is “talentless” and accusing the network of propping him up for partisan reasons.

By asking who will still be on air by the end of 2028, this market tests not just media durability but also how comedy, politics, and network economics collide and which voices survive when satire itself becomes contested.

1. Stephen Colbert cancellation (Variety):

https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/stephen-colbert-late-show-ending-1236194738/

2. Jimmy Kimmel suspension (AP News):

https://apnews.com/article/jimmy-kimmel-abc-suspension-2025

3. Seth Meyers contract extension & Trump criticism (TopThreeUS):

https://www.topthreeus.com/donald-trump-slams-seth-meyers-nbc-contract-extension/

A host will resolve YES if they are actively hosting a late-night show under their name in the U.S. in December 2028.

To count, there must be at least one original episode aired in December 2028, or (to avoid holiday breaks) at least one in November 2028 and one in January 2029.

If a show is cancelled, suspended, or the host is replaced for any reason (political, personal, contractual, or ratings-related) it resolves as NO. Even non-political reasons like retirement, health, or a network format change count as cancellation.

Specials / guest hosting: One-off specials, podcasts, or guest appearances do not count. It must be a regular late-night format airing under the host’s name.

Platform changes: If the show moves from network TV to streaming (e.g., NBC to Peacock, CBS to Paramount+), it still counts, provided the host is fronting the same recognizable late-night format.

Name changes: Cosmetic rebranding (e.g., Late Night with Seth Meyers → The Seth Meyers Show) still counts. A new host replacing them does not.