Resolves to YES if there is a strike that substantially disrupts our east coast port capacity for at least two full weeks prior to the end of 2024 (e.g. a lot of the ports are largely shut down for a minimum of 14 full days before reopening).

Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or it is clear it will not happen (e.g. the strike is resolved fully, so we won't wait until EOY).

See: https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1838670975610888411

Ryan Peterson's judgment will be used if he makes a clear statement either way, if not I will use Zvi's (or my own if he doesn't weigh in). I copied this from Zvi who had a 1-week and a 3-week market, but the distribution between 1 and 3 seems pretty important so I made this one

Also see:

• https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas?play=true (1 week, otherwise identical)

• https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas-mclujjllm1?play=true (3 weeks, otherwise identical)

Will there be a major strike at east coast USA ports lasting at least one week in 2024?

75% chance. Resolves to YES if there is a strike that substantially disrupts our east coast port capacity for at least one full week prior to the end of 2024 (e.g. a lot of the ports are largely shut down for a minimum of 7 full days before reopening). Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or it is clear it will not happen (e.g. the strike is resolved fully, so we won't wait until EOY). Ryan Peterson's judgment will be used if he makes a clear statement either way, if not I will use my own. See: https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1838670975610888411 also see: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas-mclujjllm1?play=true (same market but 3 weeks instead of 1)