Resolves to YES if there is a strike that substantially disrupts our east coast port capacity for at least two full weeks prior to the end of 2024 (e.g. a lot of the ports are largely shut down for a minimum of 14 full days before reopening).
Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or it is clear it will not happen (e.g. the strike is resolved fully, so we won't wait until EOY).
See: https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1838670975610888411
Ryan Peterson's judgment will be used if he makes a clear statement either way, if not I will use Zvi's (or my own if he doesn't weigh in). I copied this from Zvi who had a 1-week and a 3-week market, but the distribution between 1 and 3 seems pretty important so I made this one
Also see:
https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas?play=true (1 week, otherwise identical)
https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas-mclujjllm1?play=true (3 weeks, otherwise identical)
1,000
3.00I resolved this early because I was basing it on @ZviMowshowitz 's, and he resolved his already. But strictly speaking 2024 isn't over and so this should still be open (as @JTBooth pointed out to me). And frankly, even though it's no longer a central news item, this seems like the sort of thing that should have an ongoing open market for it!
So idk if Zvi is going to reopen his but I am reopening mine.
https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas?play=true
@MalcolmOcean My understanding was that if the strike happened after the extension it would be in January, so it wouldn't count.