Resolves to YES if there is a strike that substantially disrupts our east coast port capacity for at least three full weeks prior to the end of 2024 (e.g. a lot of the ports are largely shut down for a minimum of 7 full days before reopening).
Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or it is clear it will not happen (e.g. the strike is resolved fully, so we won't wait until EOY).
Ryan Peterson's judgment will be used if he makes a clear statement either way, if not I will use my own.
See: https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1838670975610888411
Also see: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas?play=true (1 week instead of 3, otherwise identical)
1,000
3.00The 1977 strike was six weeks, five weeks to the election. I buy that this is politically motivated, see the "productive conversation" with Trump. Doesn't necessarily mean it'll last a long time, but I don't think Biden can end it and I don't think the ports will sign "no automation."
Do we need to stock up on anything or are all these people crazy? Like I'm pretty sure my milk doesn't come in via ship on the East Coast but the milk is all sold out at Costco? What the fuck is going on? I can't afford to create a market on it until I get my @Tumbles -esque bail-out from the top dogs at Manifold soon.
Similar market for a 4+ week duration.
https://manifold.markets/MarkFrost/will-the-east-coast-longshoremans-s
I went and made a 2-week one: https://manifold.markets/MalcolmOcean/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas-mdfc0qrctj?play=true