Will OpenAI release a model which performs chain-of-thought on image tokens / visual scratchpad before 2026?
10
100Ṁ353resolved Apr 18
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as YES if OpenAI releases a model which performs chain-of-thought on image tokens or which uses a visual scratchpad before January 1st 2026
Update 2025-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tool use for chain-of-thought is valid.
If the model produces chain-of-thought on image tokens using external tools, it meets the criteria.
The model does not need to generate the tokens directly; using its built-in tool capabilities is sufficient.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ26 | |
| 2 | Ṁ24 | |
| 3 | Ṁ23 | |
| 4 | Ṁ20 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will OpenAI release a model which generates images using reasoning / inference-time scaling before 2026?
50% chance
Will OpenAI add image generation capabilities to its o1/o3/... series models before 2026?
75% chance
Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?
19% chance
Will OpenAI release true multimodal image generation for GPT-4.5 before 2026?
16% chance
Will OpenAI release a tokenizer with more than 210000 tokens before 2026?
24% chance
Will OpenAI offer a model that updates its weights while running during 2025?
8% chance
When will OpenAI release an open source model?
Will OpenAI release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?
7% chance
Before 2028, will OpenAI offer a model that can work on a task continuously for at least a week?
62% chance