Model at 1600 Elo on lmarena before 2026?
10
Ṁ100Ṁ769Dec 31
3%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a model has achieved 1600 elo on lmarena (lmsys) before Janaury 1st 2026.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?
Any LMArena model breaks 1600 Elo by 2027?
54% chance
Any LMArena model breaks 1650 Elo by 2027?
58% chance
Any LMArena model breaks 1700 Elo by 2027?
31% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2026?
96% chance
AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027?
55% chance
Which chess prodigy will have the highest Elo rating at the end of 2026?
Will a publicly available LLM/Agent beat a 2000 rated Elo chess player online rapid chess by March 2027?
67% chance
Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026?
34% chance