Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that at any point before January 1st 2027 at least one model listed on LMArena’s main Text Arena leaderboard (at lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) has an Elo “Score” of 1600 or higher in the default Overall view with style control off.

What exactly counts?

• LMArena Elo / “Score”

  • For this market, “Elo” means the numerical Score shown in the Text Arena leaderboard’s “Overall” tab (the standard “arena score” people quote).

  • The threshold is ≥ 1600, inclusive. A displayed score of 1600, 1601, etc. all count; 1599 does not.

  • If LMArena later shows decimals (e.g. 1599.7 vs 1600.2), the number actually displayed in the Score column is what matters.

• Which leaderboard?

  • Only the Text Arena leaderboard at lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text counts, with its default settings (currently “Overall” and style control off).

  • Other LMArena arenas (WebDev, Search, Vision, Text‑to‑Image, Text‑to‑Video, etc.) do not count for this question, even if they show scores ≥ 1600.

  • If the site UI changes but there is still a clear “main text chat leaderboard” that’s understood as the continuation of today’s Text Arena, this market tracks that successor.

• What is “strong evidence”?
  The bar is met if at least one of the following is available and not credibly disputed:

  • A live or archived snapshot of the official Text Arena leaderboard showing a model with Score ≥ 1600 and a timestamp (or “last updated” indicator) before 2027‑01‑01.

  • An official LMArena communication (website, blog, HuggingFace space, or @arena account) clearly stating that a specific model has achieved 1600+ Elo on the Text Arena.

  • A credible announcement from a major lab (e.g. Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Baidu, etc.) explicitly quoting a 1600+ LMArena Text Arena Elo for one of their models, where that claim either matches or is later reflected on the official leaderboard.

  If sources disagree (for example, a press release claims 1602 but the Text leaderboard never shows above 1595), the official Text Arena leaderboard takes precedence unless there’s overwhelming evidence the discrepancy is just a lagging snapshot.

• Timing and ephemerality

  • The rating only has to be reached once before the cutoff. If a model briefly spikes to 1600+, then later drops below 1600, the market still resolves YES.

  • “Before January 1st 2027” means strictly earlier than 2027‑01‑01 00:00 UTC, based on whatever timestamps or “last updated” dates are available from LMArena or clearly‑linked announcements.

• If LMArena changes or rebrands

  • If LMArena moves to a new domain or renames the platform but continues to run a broadly similar text chat leaderboard using Elo (or an obviously Elo‑equivalent “arena score”), this market follows that continuity.

  • If the platform abandons Elo‑style scores entirely before any model is clearly documented at ≥1600 on the Text Arena or its direct successor, this market resolves NO.

Examples

• YES example: In November 2026, the Text Arena leaderboard (Overall, style control off) shows “SomeModel‑Ultra” with Score 1603, even if marked “preliminary,” and we can verify that snapshot is from before 2027‑01‑01.

• NO example: By January 2027, the highest Score ever documented on the Text Arena (or its direct successor) is 1599, or every 1600+ claim is only for non‑text arenas or cannot be tied back to LMArena’s official text leaderboard.