Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the percentage of votes received by Rafał Trzaskowski in the 2025 Polish presidential election. The resolution will be determined using official results published by the National Electoral Commission of Poland. Each answer option will resolve as follows:

• Under 47%: Resolves "Yes" if Trzaskowski receives less than 47% of the vote.

• Above 47% under 48%: Resolves "Yes" if Trzaskowski receives over 47% but less than 48%.

• Above 48% under 49%: Resolves "Yes" if Trzaskowski receives over 48% but less than 49%.

• Above 50% under 51%: Resolves "Yes" if Trzaskowski receives over 50% but less than 51%.

• Above 52% under 53%: Resolves "Yes" if Trzaskowski receives over 52% but less than 53%.

• Above 54%: Resolves "Yes" if Trzaskowski receives more than 54%.

If Trzaskowski's vote percentage does not fall within the range specified by an answer, that answer will resolve "No." If the election is canceled or postponed indefinitely, all answers will resolve "N/A."

Background

Rafał Trzaskowski, the current Mayor of Warsaw and a member of the Civic Platform party, is a prominent candidate in the 2025 Polish presidential election. In the first round of voting held on May 18, 2025, Trzaskowski led with 31.36% of the vote, followed by Karol Nawrocki with 29.54%. A runoff election is scheduled for June 1, 2025, as no candidate secured more than 50% in the first round. (en.wikipedia.org)

Trzaskowski previously ran for president in 2020, narrowly losing to incumbent Andrzej Duda with 48.97% of the vote. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

• Polling Data: Recent polls indicate a tight race between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, with both candidates tied at 47% support. (ft.com)

• Voter Turnout: High youth turnout in the first round may influence the runoff results, depending on the candidates' ability to mobilize this demographic. (reuters.com)

• Endorsements: Trzaskowski has received endorsements from other candidates, including Szymon Hołownia and Magdalena Biejat, which may impact his vote share in the runoff. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Political Climate: The election is viewed as a referendum on Prime Minister Donald Tusk's leadership and the direction of Poland's relationship with the European Union. (ft.com)

Traders should monitor these factors, as they could significantly influence the final vote percentages in the upcoming runoff election.