Background

LeBron James, currently in his 21st NBA season, has been contemplating retirement timing. He has stated he could physically play for another 5-7 years but doesn't plan to play that long. He's expressed a desire to finish his career with the Lakers and has ruled out any post-retirement comebacks.

NBA insider Shams Charania suggests 2026 as a likely retirement year, coinciding with Los Angeles hosting the 2026 All-Star Game. LeBron has also expressed interest in playing alongside his youngest son Bryce, who could enter the NBA as early as 2027.

Resolution Criteria

The market will resolve to the calendar year in which LeBron James officially announces his retirement from the NBA. If he announces retirement during a season, the market will resolve to the year of his final NBA game.

• If LeBron takes a break but later returns to play, the market will not resolve until his final, permanent retirement

• If LeBron becomes unable to play due to injury or other circumstances but doesn't officially retire, the market will resolve to the year he officially announces retirement

• If LeBron dies while still an active player without having announced retirement, the market will resolve to the year of his last played NBA game

Considerations

• LeBron's retirement timing could be influenced by several factors including:

  • His stated goal of playing with his son Bryce

  • The Lakers' competitive window

  • His health and performance level

  • His pursuit of additional NBA records

  • His post-playing career aspirations in team ownership