Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if LeBron James announces his retirement before the 2026-27 NBA season begins. This includes any official announcement from James, his agent Rich Paul, or the Los Angeles Lakers organization confirming his retirement. The market resolves NO if James plays in any game during the 2026-27 season. Resolution will be determined via official NBA sources, team announcements, or major sports news outlets (ESPN, NBA.com, The Athletic, etc.).

Background

LeBron James is in the final year of his contract with the Los Angeles Lakers, set to hit free agency this summer. The Lakers do not know if James plans to retire after the 2025-26 season, and he is reportedly going year to year. James hasn't ruled out playing another year or two, at least publicly, and is shooting 51.2% from the floor this season. James said before the season he has a "timeline" on an announcement, but hasn't revealed that yet.

Considerations

James has missed 17 games due to foot arthritis and sciatica, and one more absence would make him ineligible for postseason awards under the NBA's 65-game rule. Some analysts predict James will announce his retirement after this season but play one final season in 2026-27 as a farewell tour, which would resolve this market as NO.