I've been meaning to post clarification here for a while, so here goes:

The intention is that this describes a new movement of people who are moon hoaxers. So flat earthers claiming a hoax in service of the flat earth won't count. The Hoaxers must have the hoax as their primary conspiracy theory (so if those fringe groups on facebook/etc who literally believe in everything, don't count).

These are the things that the moon hoax community will need to have:

• At least 5 'influencers' (or future equivalent) with wide reach who focus on the new moon hoax (NMH). This includes but isn't limited to youtubers, twitterers, podcasters, tiktokers, etc.

• Forums (or future equivalent - hashtags on social media work for example) where people primarily discuss the NMH - should be reasonably publicly accessible (e.g. not private telegram groups) and reasonably popular (i.e. more than 10 new 'posts' a day)

• In-person meetups (unless this is clearly not possible, e.g. pandemic)

• All the above should be widely considered primarily NMH based and should not have other conspiracy theories they feature prominently (i.e. they can talk about chemtrails occaisionally but the channel shouldn't be 50/50 NMH/chemtrails - though it's fine if the chemtrail guy slowly/quickly becomes the NMH guy)

• Awareness of the NMH believers on the wider internet - so people on AITAH might ask "AITAH for telling my brother that his NMH girlfriend can't come to christmas dinner after what happened last time?"

In general, a movement of the size of the flat earth movement would resolve YES. A movement of the size of the "giraffes aren't real" movement would resolve NO (note: I have not done extensive research into the latter).

This is confusing. The answer is already yes: flat earthers won't believe it. What exactly are we predicting? Whether there are people who accept that the Earth is round and space exists and the Moon is reachable in principle but that it hasn't happened?

Whether there will be an online movement that specifically attempt to debunk the new landing itself

So like, analysing the footage, disputing the sample returns, etc. Same sort of thing as the modern moon landing hoax.

So flat earthers would not count if they only use flat earth arguments to dispute the moon landing.

Well, there was a "Covid is a hoax" conspiracy. Moon landing is even more distant from people eyes than the invisible virus.

@KongoLandwalker there will be even more problems this time because of Video generation software. Even if there will be live streaming from moon surface I anticipate a lot of people saying "oh, that's just photoshop/sona".

They never learn functionality and limitations of technologies. If one technology gives them a cheap argument that fits their worldview, they will use it.