This market resolves to YES if at least one runner finishes an officially sanctioned marathon (26.1 miles or 42.2km) race in less than 2 hours and 1 minute gun time.
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With Kipchoge running in Berlin and Kiptum opting out of the world championships to aim for the WR (where?), this seems likelier than I would have thought last year. If Kiptum also ran Berlin, which would be awesome, I wouldn’t be so sure, though they might both run under 2:01 for all we know. Crazy times.
https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/38004346/eliud-kipchoge-race-berlin-where-set-marathon-record
Does anyone know if Kiptum is planning to run Berlin this year?
Update: he’s running Chicago. Too bad.
@NicoDelon If any runner came close to beating this time, the MBTA Silver Line bus would take them out before they cross the finish line.
@dominic I think he’s also eyeing NYC, the only other Major he hasn’t run, but maybe not this year and it’s also not a very fast race.
@NicoDelon His only real chance would be Berlin I think, barring some weird fast course I don't know about. If he decides to run it he would have a decent chance at breaking 2:01.
@dominic I think Kelvin Kiptum has a meaningful chance of achieving this too, he ran 2:01:53 on his debut in Valencia this year. It's possible he might run Berlin or Valencia again, and if he gets good conditions then who knows.
@jonny Good point. For some reason he was off my radar. His debut seems almost too good to be true—how do you move from being a good runner on the half to exploding the fastest marathon debut record, apparently training alone and with no coach? I’m assuming he’s clean, so he’s definitely a candidate.
@jonny Yeah Kiptum has a chance for sure. But I think his Valencia performance seems kind of like an outlier in that it will be very hard to replicate, let alone drop another minute. I'd say his chance of doing it is single digits.
@dominic What do you think of his recent London performance? Does it make you update? Pretty darn impressive if he’s clean.
@NicoDelon Yeah it does, I now think he has a legitimate chance if he runs Berlin (maybe 1 in 3?). Especially if he ends up competing directly against Kipchoge there (not sure what their plans are)