This is about the upcoming meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in China in May 2026. If the meeting is postponed to some future time by the end of 2026, the options will apply to that meeting. If the meeting does not happen by the end of the year, all the relevant options resolve accordingly (NO or YES depending on the case). All options pertain to a single visit over the course of one or several consecutive days not to separate visits during 2026. They therefore apply exclusively to the first such summit to take place in 2026.
All events must be reliably reported by mainstream outlets or take place before cameras. I will adjudicate the answers I added myself.
Feel free to add options. I reserve the right to resolve unclear or absurd answers N/A without prior notice.
Update 2026-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "Trump mentions Biden": Truth Social posts do not count as valid evidence for resolution. The mention must be reliably reported by mainstream outlets or occur before cameras.
Update 2026-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Trump mentions Taiwan': Trump's own words (e.g., statements on Air Force One) are not sufficient evidence on their own. Resolution requires a news outlet reporting on the facts (not just Trump's words). If only Trump's statements or the Chinese readout are available as evidence, the answer will resolve NO.
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@traders please post evidence for the remaining options. I’m leaning towards resolving all of them NO but will keep looking over the next day.
@traders taiwan may be the exception… what do you all think? I sold my position. Trump clearly mentioned it on Air Force One. I’m not sure that counts as part of the summit (I’m not counting unverified reports from Trump or Xi that they discussed it).
@MachiNi I closed the market while I research this. It looks like the Times is only reporting on what Trump said. It seems exceedingly likely that Trump did mention Taiwan, going by his words and the official Chinese readout. But it’s also possible he just nodded in response to Xi. Unless a news outlet reports on the facts rather than just Trump’s words I’m inclined to say NO. If you changed your bet in response to my previous comment, let me know and I’ll send you the amount of your prior position.
@MachiNi Polymarket related to it has resolved no for Taiwan.
"What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?"
https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-bilateral-events-with-xi-jinping
@Capital This could have resolved yes without being said in front of cameras but I haven’t found any factual reporting on what was actually said so this resolves NO.
@mods i need your help unresolving an option (it says I can’t because it was more than ten minutes ago). Fat finger foggy brain pressed yes instead of no for ‘No summit takes place before EOY’. Sorry!
