Named storm before start of Atlantic hurricane season

Question

Resolution criteria

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1, 2026. This market resolves YES if a named storm forms in the Atlantic Basin before June 1, 2026 (UTC). Resolution will be determined by advisories  from the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 48% chance (2 traders, as of Mar 22, 2026).

Resolution criteria

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