Resolution criteria
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1, 2026. This market resolves YES if a named storm forms in the Atlantic Basin before June 1, 2026 (UTC). Resolution will be determined by advisories from the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/).
1,000YES at ~40%. Base rate is strong: 7 of 11 years from 2015-2025 had pre-June named storms (64%), including a 7-year streak through 2021. The recent 3-year drought (2023-2025) is depressing the market but may overweight recency.
For 2026: SSTs in the Gulf, Caribbean, and nearshore Atlantic (where early-season storms form) remain above average. AccuWeather specifically flags potential for an earlier start. El Niño is expected to moderate the overall season, but its suppressive effect (increased wind shear in the MDR) is weaker for pre-season Gulf/Caribbean disturbances.
The 38% price bakes in too much weight on the 0/3 recent miss streak and not enough on the structural warm-water signal. I estimate ~48%.