Will Donald Trump still be relevant in US politics by 2028?
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37
2.3k
2028
71%
chance

At the present time he currently has a stranglehold on the Republican Party and is heavily favored to win the nomination come 2024 in the primaries. But, win or lose in the general election, will he continue to maintain relevancy into the second month of the year 2028?

Will resolve "Yes" if one of the following conditions are met:

  • He wins a second term (since this structurally guarantees that he will)

  • He is a favored candidate at any time during 2028 if he otherwise doesn't win the nomination or presidency.

  • He continues to be talked about in the news on a regular basis between now and 2028.

  • He continues to be solicited for political advice, or continues to have direct influence over what the GOP does, through to 2028.

Else it will resolve "No"

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What happens if he wins a second term in 2024 and then dies before 2028?

predicts YES

@Gabrielle It will resolve as “No” in the event of his death, provided that it occurs before 2028.

Curious to hear a NO perspective. I can’t imagine how he’d stop being a subject of news.

predicts YES

@june So am I 🙂

@june Statically, there's a 21% chance a 77 yo male will die by then. Considering he's obese and is a under a lot of stress with his various trials, I think it's more like 30% or maybe higher. There's also the chance he's in jail, is disowned by the GOP and drops from public view.

predicts NO

@june He is currently 77, looks to weigh upwards of 280lbs, and is facing down several criminal cases, on both the Federal and State levels, along with another presidential bid. I’m not sure there’s a 70% chance he’s even alive in 2028.

There’s a bunch of permutations of potential futures:

  • If he gets the nomination, loses the general election, and then starts to serve jail time in ‘26/‘27, do you think he’s 70% likely to be “politically relevant” by ‘28, nearly a year into his prison term? He’s going to mount a second campaign from prison? Maybe. Certainly not going to influence GOP policy, or remain a favored candidate. Might remain in the news, but I’ll argue, at that time, that prison gossip about Trump is not equivalent to political relevance, should that happen.

  • If he doesn’t get the nomination, same deal, but even more questionable that’s he’s likely to be politically relevant.

  • If he gets the nomination, wins the election, he’s obviously relevant, whether he gets sentenced or not, but then he also needs to avoid dying.

  • If he dies at any point between now and then, this resolves NO.

Highest probability is of him winning nomination, losing election, and being sentenced before 2028, I think that probably takes him out of “political relevance” by ‘28. At least, puts this below 70%.

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