Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be replicated by October 1st?
93
closes Oct 2
1.2%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ782 +7723.8%
New probability
1.3% +0.1%
Here is the paper in question: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2307/2307.12008.pdf. Replication will mean either a peer-reviewed publication of room temperature and pressure superconductor or general expert consensus that the result is real (e.g. a flood of Archive results that do not involve any of the 3 authors on the original paper and are being discussed and analyzed on twitter without significant blow-back that the results are fake/wrong).
Get Ṁ500 play money
Related questions
Sort by:

CodeandSolderbought Ṁ100 of NO
Relevant PubPeer thread: https://pubpeer.com/publications/82AF24DF343C16341B42CF36B22FA4
Sort by:
0 YES payouts
Ṁ9,586
Ṁ2,354
Ṁ828
Ṁ390
Ṁ359
Ṁ228
Ṁ187
Ṁ177
Ṁ132
Ṁ100
Ṁ97
Ṁ66
Ṁ60
Ṁ55
Ṁ54
Ṁ51
Ṁ50
Ṁ30
0 NO payouts
Ṁ27,479
Ṁ3,392
Ṁ3,312
Ṁ1,015
Ṁ820
Ṁ648
Ṁ531
Ṁ289
Ṁ270
Ṁ238
Ṁ204
Ṁ191
Ṁ183
Ṁ146
Ṁ139
Ṁ134
Ṁ130
Ṁ129



































Related questions
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before the end of Sep 2023?
[100x Fine] Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?
Will the "Superconductor Pb10−xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation..." pre-print be retracted from arxiv by the end of 2023?
Will we have multiple, replicated room temperature, ambient pressure superconducting substances by end of 2023?