The U.S. Census Bureau reports this number seasonaly adjusted. Pre-pandemic, it was growing at a 2% per quarter (means, 10% became 10.2%).

You can access the release on Fred.

This market resolves to YES if on Q2 2024, the e-commerce penetration of retail sales is at 16.9% or over (with a 0.1% tolerance to the downside, the median absolute error for the trendline during the 2010s was 0.046%). This means the penetration of e-commerce in the Retail sales goes from 15.1% in the most recent report to 16.9%.

The R² for the pre-pandemic exponential trendline is of 99.82%.

I may bet on this market.