Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?
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643
Ṁ150k
resolved Dec 29
Resolved
YES

If there's more than 1h of a major outage, I'll solve this market to YES. I'll use my judgment.

I won't bet.

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predicted YES

how the fuck did i lose money on this i bet yes when this shit was at like 9%

predicted YES

@dume85 Funny thing about outages is they tend to strike without warning.

predicted NO

@dume85 Was that the only bet you made? Your profit shows the your net gain/loss for all bets combined.

predicted YES

@Eugger ya i'm just r-worded

predicted NO

It was so close.

predicted NO

This is incorrectly resolved.

predicted YES

@Gigacasting Are you serious? Your picture literally says "Twitter Inc suffered a major outage"

predicted NO

@Gigacasting How? Wasn't it out for more than an hour?

New York Times - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/28/technology/twitter-outages.html

At 9:08 ET the NYT reported "widespread outages". There's no media more mainstream than the NYT.

@Chaos that's how the media report a major outage

predicted YES

@MP Gotcha. Thanks for managing this market!

Are we sure it passes the 1 hour test?

predicted YES

Yes, it's still going on now:

This should be resolved

Front page of the Guardian:

Article link, and a small excerpt:

The London-based internet monitor NetBlocks said “Twitter is experiencing international outages affecting the mobile app and features including notifications”.

“The incident is not related to country-level internet disruptions or filtering.”

Surely this will resolve now? I refreshed Twitter and am stuck in a login loop now. Not just me either.

@JakeFromHackmud Same for the last hour or two.

predicted YES

@EdwardKmett Hah. Wish I stuck with my original bet and bought more. ty.

@JakeFromHackmud Appears the issues have started again. I don't see a way this doesn't resolve at this point.

It's up to @MP now, but I'm betting on 1,500+ Down detector reports: https://downdetector.com/status/twitter/

predicted YES

@MattReardon at 7:02 EST and continuing past 8:30

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