Will there be a big story in a significant media outlet denouncing AI-generated porn that attracts significant public discussion by the end of 2023?
64
162
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resolved Apr 11
Resolved
YES

Will a mainstream media outlet (NYT, WaPo, The Guardian, WSJ...) publish a story linking AI-generated art to porn?

Besides some Hacker News discussions, I don't see many people discussing the issues of AI-generated porn, particularly deep fakes. All the debate centers around the intellectual rights of the arts.

This market will solve to YES if a mainstream media out runs a story with significant importance (e.g: Not only the NYT runs a story, but they ask the journalist to go to The Daily to comment) that causes a significant debate on the internet.

As always in my markets, this will include significant judgment on my part, I'll try to be fair and I won't bet here.

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predicted NO

If any bear disagrees, I'll leave some days to argue, but I intend to resolve to YES under the argument made by @CodeSolder

predicted YES

@MP could you resolve? I could really use the mana back

predicted YES

@MP Thanks!

predicted NO

@CodeandSolder so fun this market traded at 90% even though I said I'd resolve to YES

predicted YES

@MP And that it resolved around 2 months after the event, I need to figure out a way to find forgotten markets like this

predicted NO

For whatever reason, I did bet on this market while I said I wouldn't. I won't bet further nor exit my position, but if anyone feels deceived, just reply here.

predicted YES

@CodeSolder For resolution purposes: The Insider and PC Gamer articles both call deepfake tech artificial intelligence or AI, the Wired article does not. All the articles discuss harms of deepfakes. Seems like a likely "YES", given the mention of deepfakes in the market body.

predicted NO

@horse I am skeptical if those are mainstream media outlets under the resolution. Also, I am skeptical if they attracted significant public discussion.

it would be helpful to see more evidence of both

predicted YES

@CodeSolder Insider most definitely is a mainstream outlet, there was a lot of discussion, the posts on Reddit have very high interactions:

https://www.reddit.com/r/LivestreamFail/comments/10p642w/atrioc_issues_apology_and_says_he_tries_to_build

https://www.reddit.com/r/LivestreamFail/comments/10qg8wr/maya_releases_a_statement_on_the_atriocdeepfake

It was covered by pretty much all top Twitch streamers:

https://youtu.be/pm0U0P7C0zU

https://youtu.be/628I2souHVI

https://youtu.be/FmWt04R9Gyw

https://youtu.be/COZCHQkMsxM

https://youtu.be/VY_gqRwCZm0

If that doesn't resolve YES I don't think anything reasonably can

bought Ṁ100 of YES
bought Ṁ50 of YES
predicted YES

@CodeSolder (the above is Google Trends if that isn't obvious from the interface)

predicted NO

https://techcrunch.com/2022/11/17/meet-unstable-diffusion-the-group-trying-to-monetize-ai-porn-generators/
Techcrunch story. I don't think it's significant enough, but it seems we're getting closer.

Just to clarify, does this include deepfake reskins of existing porn to have another person's face or body?

@LivInTheLookingGlass I will solve to YES even if the news isn't particularly accurate technically (journalists aren't known for their machine learning knowledge). So if the text says a plain-vanilla deep fake has AI and it has significant repercussion, I'll solve to YES.

I will certainly discuss and tell you if I am considering to solve to YES after any report.

@MP So a big part of the story is if the media THINKS it is AI generated and covers it as such. Do I get that right?

predicted NO