Will an AI-fabricated police brutality video receive major news coverage by end of 2025?
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2026
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Does it count if the news coverage is mostly saying "this went viral but wasn't real"? (If so boring bet)

bought Ṁ100 of NO

I predict that as soon as AI generated video can be reasonably believable upon casual viewing, the public will become wary of all “video evidence” and there will be some form of “fact checking agency” contracted to verify videos before news agencies publish them.

Jan 1 2025 or Dec 31 2025?

predicts YES

@MattReardon latter

What are the parameters on this? Is it limited to any one country? What is "major"?

predicts YES

@brp honestly haven't thought too much about this, feel free to suggest more specific resolution criteria

@RovingSign I might suggest limiting the scope to languages you know and defining terms carefully. It is also fine to leave definitions subjective, but if you do it would be good to refrain from trading in the market. For the market decider to trade in the market opens up a whole can of worms around trust.

You should also think carefully about potential edge cases: what if only part of a police brutality video is fabricated by AI? What it is fabricated to exonerate the police? What if the fact that it was fabricated gets more major news coverage than the original fake? What if it is reported on as truth by major news, and only a few minor news sites say that it is fabricated? What if only audio is faked? Does an old video being touched up with old techniques (i.e. deepfakes) count as AI-fabricated? What if the major news site uses AI to change the race of the victim? Does official government-created PsyOps material count?

So you see, there are a lot of potential edge conditions.