Will the United States refuse to honor an article 5 call by a NATO country by 2029 year end?
Will the United States refuse to honor an article 5 call by a NATO country by 2029 year end?
9
358Ṁ4912030
13%
chance
4
1D
1W
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ALL
This Article 5 call needs to be qualified
At least two NATO countries need to publicly acknowledge it's a honest call
I'll rely on the wording of the mainstream media to check if there's a real threat to a NATO country
I won't bet.
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What qualifies the US “refusing to honor” article 5? The exact text (below) doesn’t require the US to necessarily use armed forces. Would it be that we’re unwilling to help whatsoever?
“such action as [the member state] deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area."
also, fwiw: wikipedia maintains a list of all threats to use article 5, and the singular use (sept 11th).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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