Will a decisive verdict in the Trump trial cause a 5pt change in Biden's odds in the subsequent 7 days?
Basic
36
αΉ€11k
resolved Jun 8
Resolved
NO

After the day a conclusive verdict is announced, I'll consider the average through the 7th day vs the average probability in the day prior to the trial.

If the trial is inconclusive, this market resolves to N/A.

I'll consider Lars' market.

I won't bet.

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Unless probability collapses throughout the day, I am resolving this to NO.

pretty sure this resolves NO now (50% -> 47%)

We might be into some entertaining closing for this market.

The recent evidence seems good.

The clock is ticking!

This market is reflexive

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