Will a decisive verdict in the Trump trial cause a 5pt change in Biden's odds in the subsequent 7 days?

Trump Republican Party Trump indictment(s)

Basic

36

Ṁ11k

resolved Jun 8

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

After the day a conclusive verdict is announced, I'll consider the average through the 7th day vs the average probability in the day prior to the trial.

If the trial is inconclusive, this market resolves to N/A.

I'll consider Lars' market.

I won't bet.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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Unless probability collapses throughout the day, I am resolving this to NO.

pretty sure this resolves NO now (50% -> 47%)

We might be into some entertaining closing for this market.

The recent evidence seems good.

The clock is ticking!

This market is reflexive

Related questions

Will Trump be Convicted, if his January 6th Trial begins before the election?

If Biden dropping out odds increase by >30% in a day, will Polymarket odds of a Trump win decrease that day?

Will Trump’s January 6 trial have a verdict before Election Day?

Conditional on Biden winning, on the Monday before the election, will Manifold give him >=80% chance?

Trump's election chances, depending on whether he gets convicted by Election Day

If Biden drops out, will Polymarket's odds of Trump winning decrease in the subsequent week?

Will any of Trump’s trials end in a hung jury?

Will the January 6th Case against Trump have a mistrial/hung jury before election day?

What will the outcome of the US presidential election be, conditional on the criminal trials against Trump?

Will the stock market respond more positively if Biden wins the election over Trump?

Related questions

Will Trump be Convicted, if his January 6th Trial begins before the election?

If Biden drops out, will Polymarket's odds of Trump winning decrease in the subsequent week?

If Biden dropping out odds increase by >30% in a day, will Polymarket odds of a Trump win decrease that day?

Will any of Trump’s trials end in a hung jury?

Will Trump’s January 6 trial have a verdict before Election Day?

Will the January 6th Case against Trump have a mistrial/hung jury before election day?

Conditional on Biden winning, on the Monday before the election, will Manifold give him >=80% chance?

What will the outcome of the US presidential election be, conditional on the criminal trials against Trump?

Trump's election chances, depending on whether he gets convicted by Election Day

Will the stock market respond more positively if Biden wins the election over Trump?