This Boutique investment banking company every year launches their predictions for the next year. They recently launched their predictions for 2024: https://app.hubspot.com/documents/4119751/view/696255966?accessId=f785a8&__hstc=45195259.6fa3ec28556903cf373773adcc4a90ae.1700142921939.1700142921939.1700142921939.1&__hssc=45195259.1.1700142921940&__hsfp=1938150743

I plan to resolve each question independently of each other. I will rely on their own defense in the next year prediction, but I'll use my own judgement to decide if they actually predicted. If they say YES-NO, or try to split the difference, I'll resolve to NO. If they say they failed, I'll also resolve to NO.

I do not plan to resolve any question to PROB, but I understand that some predictions are multi-faceted, therefore a prediction don't need necessarily to be resolved to YES in its entirety, just in spirit. I'll continuously provide guidance.

Below is a summary, but I'll rely on their predictions on their integrity.

1- Large Language Models become smaller, disrupting the AI market

• They hint at GPT-5 having a smaller parameter count than GPT-4

• They comment how Replit's tiny 3B parameter model can outperform ChatGPT at Coding

2- Bits to billions: legacy data spurs acquisition boom

• Most of enterprise data is unstructured, but now AI can monetize them, even smaller datasets

• We're going to see a wave of acquisitions in 2024 primarily to gain access to their data

3- Private sector to spearhead space revitalization

• The number of satellites launched into space will continue to increase year after year – especially once SpaceX’s Starship is operational. The number of companies in the space industry will grow in number and importance. The products and services that utilise satellites will become increasingly capable and commonplace. Even if you do not feel it yet, a new space era is upon us.

4- The rise of authenticity as creators challenge AI

• 2024 will see a surge in decentralised networks designed to ensure provenance for all types of work created by humans, and tools designed to protect and promote human creators

• Fan patronization of their favorite creators

• Growing number of new tools that can protect creator assets from AI and a rising obstruction of AI bots operated by search engines

• Next year, more digital media platforms will introduce subscription plans, similar to Substack’s, to empower creators to engage and capture more revenue from the most loyal fans. Separately, more creator-focused marketplaces will emerge around royalty sharing, where fans can own a share of the IP of the work produced by their favourite creators, like Royal.io, a marketplace for music royalty rights. Lastly, we expect to see the emergence of solutions that aid in identifying digital content creators and validating information accuracy, assuring the origin of diverse forms of creative content. These solutions will prioritise creators and be geared towards fostering a transparent and secure digital content creation, management, and sharing ecosystem

5- AR/VR & AI fuel a surge in immersive education investments

• Here basically they're claiming a wave of investments in AR/VR (mostly) with education applications.

• "We expect to see the number of use cases offering more advanced immersive experiences to increase in the coming year as educators realise the gains that learning through AR/VR unlocks."

• "But education is not limited to the classroom. We expect enterprises to utilise AR/VR more in the coming year."

• "We expect that AR/VR combined with AI will be mission-critical for healthcare among numerous other sectors for training in 2024."

• MP: Some of this already happens in the status quo, I'll need to see evidence of increased momentum

6- Apple's expanded subscription service with ad-free search engine

• In 2024, we predict Apple will leverage its commitment to user privacy and fi nally enter the search engine market with an ad-free offering bundled with existing subscriptions.

7- Anti-money laundering and payment protections come centre-stage (crypto)

• "The global AML market, driven by digital transactions, was valued at $1.32bn in 2022, with a projected growth rate of 15.9% from 2023 to 2030. However, enforcing these regulations presents hurdles for crypto exchanges and wallets, with traditional processes proving inadequate."

• "The Bank Secrecy Act requires crypto businesses to have anti-money laundering programmes. The European Union passed the 5th Anti-Money Laundering Directive, which explicitly includes provisions related to cryptocurrencies. Many other countries, from Singapore to Switzerland, have established regulatory frameworks that mandate or encourage anti-money laundering provisions for crypto enterprises. As the crypto space continues to evolve, striking the right balance between regulation and innovation is crucial."

8- AI is reshaping media with personalised content and acquisitions

• In response to these challenges, companies are adapting entire business models to revolve around individual preferences, and leveraging data and consumption patterns to tailor their products. Artifi cial intelligence presents signifi cant opportunities for companies willing to invest in personalised experiences and 2024 promises to be a turning point in the evolution of media and technology as AI redefi nes what content we consume and how we do it.

• MP: I'll resolve if we see significant personalized content investments by existing media companies, like ABK, Epic, Microsoft, TikTok, Warner...

9- AI race escalates semiconductor shortage

• GPUs will continue to be in shortage in 2024

• MP: Obviously, I'll consider 2024 in its entirety. GPUs being in shortage in Jan 2nd doesn't count.

10- Acceleration of carbon accounting as new regulations loom

• "However, only 10% of companies fully measure their emissions today, and enhanced digital tools are needed for broader adoption [in 2022]"

• "In 2022, carbon accounting platforms saw an unprecedented influx of $970m in funding"

Obviously I won't bet.