During the 2023 German winter, will there be at least 5 deaths caused by low temperatures due to energy shortages?
53%
chance
Mar 23, 2023
M$317 bet
MP
MP bought M$14 of NO
I made a mistake with the liquidity. Just rebought what I sold.
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Sjlver
Seems hard to resolve... For example, I'd guess there to be >5 deaths of homeless people due to hypothermia, but did the energy prices play a part in them being homeless? Also, this is probably so common that it isn't actually reported in the news.
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MP
@Sjlver It will resolved to yes if it's reported on the news
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MP
@Sjlver I am not counting homelessness because although it's sad, I am interest on deaths due to Germany poor energy policy. Homelessness deaths is due to poor housing policy. I'd expect something like this one from British Columbia: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-heat-dome-sudden-deaths-revised-2021-1.6232758 "99% died at home or hotel"
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MP
If people die inside their homes because of the winter for whatever reason I am counting, although it'll likely be related to shortage/gas prices.
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FranekZak
Would a death due to CO / other poison inhalation due to using subpar heating fuel count?
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Gigacasting
Gigacasting bought M$2 of YES
~10,000 excess deaths per winter in Germany “ the state of the macroeconomy is strongly associated with the level of excess winter deaths across Europe (p<0.001). The relationship indicates that more affluent countries with higher per capita GDP (Luxembourg, Germany, Denmark) exhibit lower seasonal variations in mortality” The Economist loves this type of stuff (at least they used to), even the slightest hint of elevation in these rates will trigger this.
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MP
@Gigacasting Interesting research sir. But just be sure, I won't settle the market as Yes with a statistical evidence like that ok?
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Gigacasting
Gigacasting sold M$1 of YES
@MP > this market is below my line ————- (This market)
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MartinRandall
Martin Randall bought M$10 of YES
@MP So if The Economist does and article about excess deaths that's a no, but if they do the same article and include a vignette of a particular death, that's a yes, because then it's not just "statistical evidence"?
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MP
@MartinRandall Exactly. I think it's cleaner that way, although it's a little arbitrary.
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