Due to poor energy policy and the Russian-Ukraine war, there has been speculation about energy shortages in Europe, including Germany, that would cause them to not have enough energy to warm their houses during the winter.
This market will solve to yes if there are news on important Western news outlets (WSJ, FT, DW, The Economist...) about at least 5 deaths that are attributable to hypothermia or something related due to lack of energy.
Other deaths due to energy shortages doesn't count (e.g: a plane crashing due to a blackout).
Jul 16, 6:28pm: This news of 595 deaths in British Columbia due to hot temperatures where 99% of the people died inside their homes is an example: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-heat-dome-sudden-deaths-revised-2021-1.6232758
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@MarkIngraham I don’t know of any blackouts or energy shortage. The prices are high but relating prices to excess mortality is much harder.
@MaxPayne there were blackouts in munich and essen, and germany stopped reporting local data but the total cases spiked when winter began killing thousands.
@MarkIngraham I know of a 40-minute electricity outage in parts of Essen about a month ago, though I haven't seen anything about the reasons. There was also a one-hour outage in parts of Dortmund due to a faulty cable. No casualties, injuries, property damage or any other consequences reported. And no connection to heating.
@PS it obviously impaired heating, imagine being stuck for an hour in winter in Germany without power. But more importantly the demand measures have forced people to turn down the heat and that kills many.
@MarkIngraham I'm not sure what you imagine German winter to be like. I don't think it was so cold at any time in the last decades that a one-hour heating outage would kill you (not sure this would be the case in Antarctica, either).
As for the second point - many people have turned down the heat, definitely. But I haven't seen anything about the "that kills many" part - would be grateful for any sources.
@PS humans die within a few days at 10 degrees. German landlords turned it to 17 degrees which is below the legal temperature. A windchill brings it down.
This market still seems very high. Is this because people think there will be a real effect of the energy prices on deaths or because they think the resolution criteria are so easily triggered?
As a German, I would find it extremely surprising if anyone would die of hypothermia inside their home. You don't get cut off heat and electricity here, even if you can't pay. Every homeless person can get shelter, if they don't and freeze, that is a sad consequence of mental health issues and the difficulty of treating that. MP said homeless people would not count here, and I think that is the right call as it is not related to energy policy.
There have been references in the comments to heat deaths, which are quite serious. But they are very different from cold deaths. Heat is much more dangerous in many ways, especially for the elderly.
On top of all of that, the temperatures in Germany are not that cold. I live in the north and right now it is slightly below zero in the night, which is in many ways a pleasant surprise over the expected rainy greyness. Germany just isn't that cold anymore.
Am I missing something?
@MP This might be due to the resolution criteria. They seem to require either "5 deaths attributable to something related due to lack of energy", or "5 deaths attributable to hypothermia" without any relation to the current energy situation. And the BC example doesn't seem to bear any relation to any energy situation as well.
As the weather turns colder-than-normal in northwest Europe and heating degrees days surge well above the seasonal average, the German government has warned that demand for gas has risen well above expectation. “Urgent request: save gas!” Klaus Müller, the head of the country's energy network regulator, wrote on Twitter.
@MP "It will resolved to yes if it's reported on the news"
people will die (people always die).
the news will report it as caused by Putin (because it's a good story).
that's my take.