This market resolves to N/A in January 2024 together with /MP/will-elon-musk-and-mark-zuckerberg . If by then, they announce their fight, this market will postpone its resolution date.
In case of a draw, this market resolves to NO.
I'll use the mainstream media (NYT, CNN, WaPo, The Guardian) to adjudicate who won in case of controversy.
I will bet on this market.
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Zuck won medals... anyone thinking Elon could beat him is delusional
@DoctorHow Zuck won a local white belt (lowest rank) bjj tournament, which is nice but not particularly impressive. Musk is like 20cm taller and multiple weight classes ahead.
Musk's been sparring with Lex. He has a big advantage in size and strength vs Zuck, but a deficit of training, but that gap could be quickly closed by more training (picking the low hanging fruit)
@JonathanRay has he? Haven't we just seen a photo that shows that? Not sure those things are the same at all
@JoshuaWilkes I see the Fridman said they spared for several hours. But he also said that Musk was quick and strong so might have been pumping him up a bit
This is the real test of masculinity btw:
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherKing/will-either-man-back-out-of-the-elo?r=Q2hyaXN0b3BoZXJLaW5n
If any of you have seen footage of zucks MMA training and bjj comp rolls, you'd bet on him. He's at the level of a pretty dedicated hobbyist. He would absolutely steamroll musk. Maybe if musk was 4 inches taller, had 20kg more muscle and used to wrestle in college it'd be fair
@mistersplice Training takes time, effort, and some physical pain. If he was 100% committed he could probably win, but I doubt his trainer will push him that hard. He'll probably get the kid glove treatment, which won't prepare him to go up against a competitive martial artist. In the early days of MMA it was common for a skilled figher to face a less skilled opponent who massively outweighs him, and the skilled fighter almost always won.
