Will at least 1 in 8 teams at a FAANG company routinely deploy LLM-written production code by the end of 2023?
41
690Ṁ3541
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

This will resolve true if I observe credible media coverage (not just rumors or anonymous Hacker News posts) by the end of 2023 that at least one FAANG company has a significant share of its development teams routinely using LLM-written code as part of their routine software development practice.

The code has to be used for production line of business applications or infrastructure rather than (say) LLM research, test case development, or LLM-related tool development (including langchain frameworks). Using the LLM to explain APIs, write queries, or write the equivalent of Stack Exchange example code won't count, nor will using an LLM to analyze code.

To qualify, a team must be checking in significant (>30 line) chunks of LLM-written code with little modification, with at least one commit per quarter containing such code.

The practice must be mainstream across multiple teams -- the occasional oddball or early adopter team here and there doesn't count. My intended threshold for this is at least 1 in 8 teams within at least one FAANG company.

If no such reports have come out by the end of 2023 this will resolve false.

If at the end of 2023 there are credible reports of ambiguous situations that cannot in my judgement be resolved fairly under the above resolution rules then I will resolve as N/A.

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