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@Manifold As stated in my description

"If this market is sweepified, Mana Market Will Resolve The Same As Manifolds resolution to the sweeps market for the Mana market.

Please resolve both markets or extend with a reason.

Thank you.

I chose in doing this to prevent any arguments towards creators when markets are sweeped.

Israel lets tens of thousands of Palestinians start returning to northern Gaza as ceasefire holds

"Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days" ...

lasting

[ las-ting, lah-sting ]

Phonetic (Standard)IPA

adjective

1. continuing or enduring a long time; permanent; durable:

   a lasting friendship.

Amid ceasefire dispute, Israel blocks thousands from returning home to northern Gaza

Israel also opened fire in Lebanon on protesters demanding their withdrawal by Sunday’s deadline under a separate ceasefire.

Under the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Israel on Saturday was to begin allowing Palestinians to return to their homes in northern Gaza through the Netzarim corridor bisecting the territory. Israel put that on hold until Hamas frees a civilian hostage who Israel said should have been released Saturday. Hamas accused Israel of violating the agreement.

Israel violates ceasefire by blocking return of displaced Gazans: Hamas (Sunday Jan 26)

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Hamas fails to notify Israel of status of hostages remaining in Gaza (Sunday Jan 26)

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Hamas and Israel trade blame over deal violations. Will the fragile ceasefire and hostage agreement hold?

Looking for official statements from each seem to show both placing blame. No official statements yet from the Guarantors.

@EBSnyder this is missing the original violation (Hamas refusing to release arbel Yehuda as agreed). But they seem to be papering over that one.

(Also the streak of terrorist attacks on Israeli civilians, but those aren't likely to break the ceasefire since no one really expected Hamas to stop with those).

I do see there are 2-3 violations on the Wikipedia page, I am not sure there was anything really said about it that changed anything except possibly starting the 10 day count over, but I am not 100% on this as I need to do more research on them.

Any information from @traders Is welcome too.

@EBSnyder Historically, it's common to have breaches of a ceasefire and for the ceasefire to continue anyway. This is usually down to mistrust and the enormous tensions during and directly after a war. A google search will substantiate this.

@GazDownright I agree, I wasn't on top of things too much for a couple days because of inauguration so I just needed to double check things and if there were true statements from anyone which nothing substantial is there to make a reset on time.

Thanks for your input.

The violations on wikipedia do appear to be "true" though. The sources include Al Jazeera and official statements from the IDF, and they state that people were targeted and killed. Could you provide an example of a ceasefire violation on that page that WOULD cause the timer to reset?

@GazDownright

Historically, it's common to have breaches of a ceasefire and for the ceasefire to continue anyway

In what meaningful way is the ceasefire continuing if there are multiple breaches?

@TheAllMemeingEye It’s a difficult question. In any conflict, it’s almost impossible to guarantee that people who have been fighting—shooting and taking fire for an extended period—won’t occasionally find themselves in situations that breach a ceasefire. Unfortunately, this is just another tragic reality of war.

Warring parties typically understand this and accept that minor violations are an inevitable part of any ceasefire. Unless they are inexperienced or actively looking for an excuse to resume hostilities, they will recognize these incidents for what they are—isolated breaches rather than an end to the truce.

You can generally trust that both the media and involved parties will be able to distinguish between minor infractions and a full breakdown of the ceasefire. When the truce is truly over, one or both sides will usually make official statements confirming it.

A major Israeli operation in the West Bank kills 8 Palestinians, wounds dozens

A major Israeli military operation in the occupied West Bank killed at least eight Palestinians on Tuesday and left dozens wounded, Palestinian health officials said, as Israel’s fragile ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza entered its third day.

The ceasefire with Hamas does not apply to the West Bank, where Israeli troops have carried out near-daily raids that often ignite gunbattles. The truce is supposed to bring calm to Gaza for at least six weeks and see 33 militant-held hostages released in return for hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.

Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir resigns over ceasefire deal via @nbcnews The resignations represent a significant blow to Netanyahu, who relied on Ben-Gvir and his Otzma Yehudit Party to maintain his fragile coalition government. Two other two ministers from the Otzma Yehudit Party, Yitzhak Wasserlauf and Amichai Eliyahu, also tendered their resignations along with Ben-Gvir.

Israel-Hamas ceasefire takes effect in Gaza

The long-awaited ceasefire comes into effect, pausing a devastating 15-month war in the Palestinian enclave.

The ceasefire came into effect at 11:15am local time (09:15 GMT) on Sunday after Hamas handed over to Israel a list of three female captives to be released as part of the deal.

Prime Minister's Office Announcement

Type: Media Statements

Government:The 37th Government

Publish Date: 17.01.2025

Following an evaluation of all diplomatic, security and humanitarian aspects, and while understanding that the proposed deal supports the achievement of the objectives of the war, the Security Cabinet has recommended that the Government approve the proposed framework.

The Government will convene later today.

sweepified!

Israeli security cabinet approves ceasefire and hostage deal

The Israeli security cabinet on Friday approved the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal announced in Qatar on Wednesday, the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement.

The 11 voting members of the security cabinet approved the deal with a simple majority vote.

The full, 33-member Israeli cabinet still needs to approve the agreement. That meeting is set to take place at 3:30 p.m. local (8:30 a.m. ET).

Israel's Cabinet will meet tomorrow to vote on the ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas, after claiming a delay was due to Hamas creating a “last-minute crisis.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office did not elaborate on what the issue was. (NBC News)

Netanyahu delays cabinet vote on Israel-Gaza ceasefire deal and hostage release (Washington Post) 37 min ago

• An Israeli cabinet meeting to approve a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas was delayed Thursday morning, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the militant group of “reneging” on parts of the agreement.

• Netanyahu’s office said the cabinet would not convene until Hamas accepted all elements of the deal. A Hamas official said on social media that the group is committed to the agreement announced Wednesday. Neither provided any further details.

@EBSnyder Uh how does this resolve if it breaks down after the first stage? Is a first round ceasefire a "call to terminate ALL hostilities"? What does "last 10 days" mean? If a single rocket is fired does the counter reset? If the rocket is from Hamas? What if it's from a non-Hamas group like PIJ?

@nathanwei

• "call to terminate ALL hostilities"?

  • As Defined In The Agreement

• "last 10 days"

  • This is market specific to resolve YES, it does not matter as to what "phase" or "stage" the ceasefire is in as long is it meets the description to initiate the start of the count to 10 days. If it lasts 10 days Minimum than it will qualify to resolve YES.

• If a single rocket is fired does the counter reset?

  • As Defined In The Agreement

• If the rocket is from Hamas?

  • This market is not specific on who breaks it if it is broken. It can be by either side or an outside party if Israel and/or Hamas issue statements that legitimately break the ceasefire

• What if it's from a non-Hamas group like PIJ?

  • As Defined In The Agreement or Deferred To Israel nd/or Hamas Statements (Also See Above Statement)

The above clarification and statement was added to the market.

@EBSnyder

If a single rocket is fired does the counter reset?

• As Defined In The Agreement

Which "Agreement"? The agreement that's signed by Israel+Hamas is unlikely to have the concept of a counter or a specific clause about a single rocket being fired. And I don't see a part of the market description that is labeled "The Agreement". Could you point me toward the agreement you're talking about, or clarify which document will become "The Agreement" in the future?

@Jwags

• "The Agreement" = Israel & Hamas Ceasefire Agreement.

• As stated in the clarification regarding any attack: It can be by either side or an outside party if Israel and/or Hamas issue statements that legitimately break the ceasefire

The full updated document should be available in whole soon but is similar to the May 2024 Proposal (it may contain incorrect information relevant to current proposal so do not use this is official use)

I will add the following to the statment of "deferred to Israel/Hamas statements" to include "defferred to Israel/Hamas statements confirmed by official government statement from Guarantors of the agreement"