MANIFOLD
How many people will claim UK asylum for the year ending December 2024?
6
แน€360แน€248
resolved Jun 21
Resolved
105,000-110,000

As reported by gov.uk.

Figure for December 23 is 83,000:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65df074bf1cab30011fc4849/imm-stats-dec-23-01.svg

(https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-december-2023/summary-of-latest-statistics)

I WILL be betting on this question myself.

Market context
UK
Immigration
Refugees
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https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-december-2024/how-many-people-claim-asylum-in-the-uk#:~:text=108%2C138%20people%20claimed%20asylum%20in,peak%20of%20103%2C081%20in%202002.

Extended to end of Feb - no change to the criteria itโ€™s just because it will take a while to be released and no harm in the market being open during that time.

This market will be resolved quite a few months after close date, to be clear, as the report is issued later on in the year.

Something's not right lol

Due to the way in which the government releases this data, this question will close on December 31st but may not resolve until the following march.

Latest release up to march 2024: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-march-2024

bought แน€0 YES

@LukeShadwell Looks like this is the most relevant graph, seems to be increasing again, possibly due to the Israel-Gaza War

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