Will Oregon sell more marijuana in July than June?
Aug 1

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Market Resolution

This is a prediction market. Market will close 31 July and will resolve in August when reports are released.

Market will resolve YES if Oregon marijuana total sales for July are higher than June sales. 

Market will resolve NO if Oregon marijuana total sales for July are less than or equal to June sales.

Data Source: Oregon Liquor & Cannabis Commission Monthly Reports


I do not bet in markets I create. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log.

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Have you considered using the "Multiple Choice -> Any number of answers" type for these markets? It's a better bettor experience IMO.

@kenakofer - I considered it, but decided against it for a couple of reasons:

  • Market title was too confusing. Essentially, the question would be "which months will sell more weed in Oregon than the month prior?" which felt clunky and uninteresting.

  • Harder to run the prediction side of things. I'd have to change the market closing date each month if I wanted to preserve the prediction aspect. As binaries, I just set the closing date and forget about it until I have to resolve. (Would be cool if MC markets allowed me to set a closing date for each option)

  • Other traders have mentioned that binary markets (like this one) get more traction than if bundled in a MC market. Bundling them would be cheaper, but separating them into binaries seems to get more audience participation.

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