Will the United Kingdom attempt to rejoin the EU and Greece demand the Elgin Marbles back to let them? [2033]
18
74
370
2034
25%
chance

In 2016, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland voted to leave the European Union, an event which later became known as Brexit. On 2020-1-31, this secession became official.

In 1812, the British Empire excavated and seized numerous marble sculptures from the Parthenon, first taking them to Malta (at the time a British subject) and then to the UK. These statues, called the Elgin Marbles, are currently in the British Museum, alongside other looted colonial wealth, and have been the subject of several demands for repatriation by the Greek Republic, all of which have been summarily refused.

Between 1991 and 2019, Greece and what is now called North Macedonia were embroiled in a dispute over naming and possible irredentism. At the time, North Macedonia was called the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYRO Macedonia); subsequently, as effective condition of joining NATO, Greece drove the name change. Of note, Greece also has a similar veto over possible membership in the EU.

Thus we ask: will the UK attempt to rejoin the EU at any point by the end of 2033, and will Greece demand the return of the Elgin Marbles?

If the UK should lose constituents, like North Ireland, Scotland, or Gibraltar, the UK will be defined to be that polity which contains the most of England. For example, a hypothetical United Kingdom of England and Wales would, even if London itself became a city-state, still count as the UK for the purposes of this question.

Resolution chart:

UK does not seriously attempt to rejoin: 25%

UK attempts to rejoin...

...and Greece makes no demand for the Elgin Marbles: NO

...and Greece demands the Elgin Marbles successfully: YES

...and Greece demands the Elgin Marbles unsuccessfully: 75%

...and the Elgin Marbles just so happen to end up with Greece: YES

...and the Elgin Marbles have already been destroyed: 50%

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I feel like the first condition, UK does not seriously attempt to rejoin, should be NO, instead of 25%, but okay

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