Will Lorxus die in Tontine at Midwest Furfest?
resolved Dec 5

https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-11-28, 325 players remain.

Midwest Furfest is a furry convention lasting from 2023-11-30~12-4, where Lorxus hopes to relax, meet friends, and relieve stress. Will they let their guard down too far?

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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predicted NO

I survived but two other players didn't :3

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Nothing personal, Lorxus

There's just 300 other players and I bet they're comparably determined

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@JamieWahls I think the question is whether Lorxus will die in the game specifically this weekend, i.e. forget/miss to login at least once a day. Regardless of what other players do, and regardless of what happens to Lorxus in the game after the weekend.

Please fill in here if I got this wrong @Lorxus.

predicted NO

@HenriThunberg This is correct! @JamieWahls , if you want "Will Lorxus win, full stop?" then the market you want is this one among others.

predicted NO

@JamieWahls I will never be offended by people putting their marbles where their epistemic state is!

predicted YES

Oh, well, enjoy my money then

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