Wider voter disenfranchisement by time of 2028 elections, corrupting results
4
100Ṁ1462028
46%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will one or more groups of people be either explicitly or implicitly prevented from voting with the same ease that they were able to in the 2024 elections, rendering the results illegitimate?
Election results don't have to be recognised as illegitimate by the illegitimate powers but rather the degree of voter disenfranchisement undertaken between the 2024 and 2028 elections.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market resolution does not require that voter disenfranchisement swings the national election outcome.
There is no specific quantitative threshold for the proportion of a group's members that must be impacted for the disenfranchisement to be considered relevant to the market's resolution.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will voter turnout be higher in the 2028 election?
60% chance
Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?
42% chance
Federal blockchain based election voting in the US in 2028?
3% chance
In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2024 US presidential election? [$10k liquid]
6% chance
Will any new state reject winner takes all electoral vote allocation for the 2028 election?
31% chance
2028 Republican nominee's public opinion on 2020 election rigging?
Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?
65% chance
Overall, how will the 2028 election go?