The Alignment Research Center has launched the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge 2026. The challenge is as follows:

"Given the weights of a neural network, can you predict its expected per-neuron activations more accurately than running it many times?"

See the contest site for details.

This market asks: What will be the adjusted score of the winner of the warm-up round?

At the time of creation of the market, the leader has an adjusted score of 9.03e-8.

Note: I intend to make markets of Round 1 and Round 2 of the competition later on (to account for any changes in the contest/scoring). This market concerns the warm-up round.