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MANIFOLD
What will be winning score in ARC's white-box estimation challenge (round 1)?
7
į¹€1kį¹€16k
resolved Aug 16
Resolved
~0.00 points
Resolved
YES
Below 1e-8
Resolved
YES
Below 1.5e-8
Resolved
YES
Below 2e-8
Resolved
YES
Below 3e-8
Resolved
YES
Below 4e-8
Resolved
YES
Below 6e-8
Resolved
YES
Below 8e-8
Resolved
YES
Below 1e-7
Resolved
YES
Below 1.5e-7

The Alignment Research Center has launched the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge 2026. The challenge is as follows:

"Given the weights of a neural network, can you predict its expected per-neuron activations more accurately than running it many times?"

See the contest site for details.

This market asks: What will be the adjusted score of the winner of round 1?

At the time of creation of the market, the leader has an adjusted score of 2.42e-7.

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@Loppukilpailija All options should resolve yes because Round 1 is completed and the lowest score is 1.00eāˆ’10.

@frankjiang they could disqualify some tho

@vi Round 1 is marked complete. I don't think there will be more disqualifications.

@frankjiang 1e-10 and 1.4e-9 r super sus compared to the rest

@frankjiang As i predicted, new top score is 1.84eāˆ’8. phase 2 starts Aug 20 so hopefully by then the rankings will be stable

@Loppukilpailija All targets have been met already.

@frankjiang lol now they're not

@vi what happened?

@frankjiang I have 2000+ invested

@frankjiang They removed some of the scores

bought į¹€658 YES

All targets have been met already.

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