What will be winning score in ARC's white-box estimation challenge (round 1)?
2
Ṁ1kṀ6.1kAug 1
0 points
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
2%
Below 1e-8
4%
Below 1.5e-8
5%
Below 2e-8
7%
Below 3e-8
10%
Below 4e-8
20%
Below 6e-8
65%
Below 8e-8
98%
Below 1e-7
99%
Below 1.5e-7
The Alignment Research Center has launched the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge 2026. The challenge is as follows:
"Given the weights of a neural network, can you predict its expected per-neuron activations more accurately than running it many times?"
See the contest site for details.
This market asks: What will be the adjusted score of the winner of round 1?
At the time of creation of the market, the leader has an adjusted score of 2.42e-7.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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