Manifold's calibration chart may be found here: https://manifold.markets/calibration

At the time of writing, predictions display a clear bias on YES. For example, markets with prediction 20% on average resolve YES only 15% of the time. In fact, all of the 10%, 20%, ... , 80%, 90% prediction bins exhibit a similar YES-bias.

The market will resolve YES if, when the first time I check the calibration chart on or after Oct. 1st, at least 8 of the 10%, 20%, ... , 80%, 90% bins still exhibit such a YES-bias. Bias is defined as the resolution frequence being strictly less than the market probability - e.g. the pair (20%, 19%) would count as exhibiting YES-bias but the pairs (20%, 20%) and (20%, 21%) would not.

The market resolves NO if at least 2 of the categories do not exhibit such a YES-bias. I may resolve the market N/A if the calibration chart is taken down and I cannot check the result soon on or after Oct. 1st.

I will rely on the numbers displayed on https://manifold.markets/calibration, and use just one sample. I will not be trading in this market. Trading closes on Sep. 25th.