NO reason: not closer to midnight and not further than midnight which is not closer to midnight "It is still 90 seconds to midnight
2024 Doomsday Clock Statement" ~ https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/
"The Doomsday Clock is a design that warns the public about how close we are to destroying our world with dangerous technologies of our own making. It is a metaphor, a reminder of the perils we must address if we are to survive on the planet.
Each year, the Clock is set by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board, a group of internationally recognized experts on nuclear risk, climate change, disruptive technologies, and biosecurity.
Right now, the Clock is the closest it has ever been at 90 seconds to midnight." ~ https://thebulletin.org/2024/01/bill-nye-joins-the-2024-doomsday-clock-announcement/?utm_source=Website&utm_medium=Banner&utm_campaign=FullSiteBanner&utm_content=DoomsdayClock_SiteBanner_01092023
If the clock gets closer to midnight than 2023 will resolve to yes
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@Panfilo i payed now 25 mana all i got i though it wasnt fixed but now i will learn not to close it hastly
I don't think they will move it (will stay at 90s). I can't think of a great reason why since it's so close to "midnight" as it is & they will look silly if they just keep Zeno's-Paradoxing their way down. The Israel/Gaza thing might very slightly increase risk, while the gradual freezing of the conflict in Ukraine should lower it.
Also, they will need to keep at least half a minute in the chamber to account for a possible Trump victory for their update next year (even though all this geopolitical turmoil started with Biden)
@LolPopb5f2 A big reason for moving the clock forward was the threat of nuclear escalation by Russia. It seems to me the likelihood of Russia using nuclear weapons is lower now than it was a year ago.
Regarding climate change, I don't see strong reasons why they would think the situation is worse than in 2023. And I don't think they've previously taken catastrophic risks from pandemics or AI into account.
My biggest reason for Yes would be that they might start considering x-risks from AI, since it has entered the mainstream discussion this year.
Also, this very similar market is only at 40% https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-the-doomsday-clock-advance-tow-ac83f64b7c4e