Will a major social media network adopt product changes to prioritize posts that are truthful and accurate by 2028? | Manifold

Will a major social media network adopt product changes to prioritize posts that are truthful and accurate by 2028?

10

1kṀ235

2028

41%

chance

1H

6H

1D

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1M

ALL

Social media is currently oriented to reward 'engagement' which functionally rewards controversy. This structure does not currently reward truth, but the rise in popularity of prediction markets, community notes, and other systems suggest a potential for a different future.

Major Social Media Network - Greater than a billion users.

Product Changes - Changes which cause posts that are demonstrably truthful (or accurately describe potential error in a post) to be more widely distributed than controversial posts.

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