Will a major social media network adopt product changes to prioritize posts that are truthful and accurate by 2028?
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2028
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Social media is currently oriented to reward 'engagement' which functionally rewards controversy. This structure does not currently reward truth, but the rise in popularity of prediction markets, community notes, and other systems suggest a potential for a different future.

Major Social Media Network - Greater than a billion users.

Product Changes - Changes which cause posts that are demonstrably truthful (or accurately describe potential error in a post) to be more widely distributed than controversial posts.

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If I'm understanding correctly Community Notes would count if X prioritized/ boosted the accurate posts?

bought Ṁ10 YES

@SimranRahman or penalised the inaccurate ones?

@SimranRahman Yeah, community notes could count. Right now engagement is still prioritized for post amplification on X though. They also don't meet the 1 Billion user mark.

Who judges if a statement is truthful?

@MichaelVoss -- The product features should build transparency about why something is considered truthful and thus amplified (e.g. Community Notes provide a venue to qualify/challenge claims). For the purposes of the question, I'd consider product features that prioritize and amplify that transparency around that reasoning above simple 'engagement' to be a yes.

Something like a brier score for users based on past claims, visible error estimates, or prediction markets embedded into post structures would be sufficient for the question to resolve Yes. Though, I would anticipate there are other ways users could be rewarded for accuracy above engagement. The crucial component is transparency in a truth prioritized rationale for amplifying a post.

Does that address the main idea of your question in your opinion?

Edited: Typos.

Can you outline what you consider the major social media networks?

@Ramble Yeah, I'll just be explicit. I used this article to assess current monthly active users: https://buffer.com/library/social-media-sites/amp/.

I arbitrarily set 1 billlion MAU as a threshold. Facebook, WhatsApp, Youtube, Instagram, WeChat, and Tiktok meet that threshold right now.

So to resolve Yes: a company with greater than 1 Billion MAUs would have to make the previously defined product changes. For the purposes of this question, if a new social media company is created around prioritization of truth over controversy then I would resolve the question as Yes as well. In addition if a company with less than 1 Billion MAUs makes truth prioritizing changes and then surpasses 1 Billion MAUs; I would also resolve the question as Yes.

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