Will I astral project to Manifest?
resolved Sep 25


I've been doing lucid dreaming for about 6 years and always saw "astral projecting" as a specific form of lucid dreaming with esoteric undertones, which is not worth doing.

However, I am broke and have magical powers and really want to attend Manifest, so I'll try to astral project there. Let me know if you felt my presence!

If I do not attempt to astral project, this will resolve No.

Resolves Yes, if I will attempt to astral project, feel as if I "exit my body", "travel" to Manifest and realistically perceive the place and the attendees.

Will I *manifest* at *Manifest*?

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I tried and got into a strange sleep paralysis, but didn't make it to astral-plane-Manifest 😥

predicted YES

The nearer the resolution of the market is, the more I think this wasn't a good idea at all...

It seemed like a fun idea at first, but actually resolving it well is so hard; I bet Yes on this myself (initially to motivate myself to actually try this), so I have a strong incentive to interpret whatever I will experience as "astral projection" + the term itself is an unscientific, new age concept which cannot be objectively verified. I lured a lot of people to this market through boosts and now the resolution is almost guaranteed to be unsatisfying/controversial. I will try to be as honest as possible, but I'm not even sure there is a defined line between "astral projection" and "lucid dream at Manifest". I probably won't experience a lucid dream either, it's a very unusual happy occurrence for me, not something I can evoke with certainty at will.

(my solution so far - sell most of my Yes before the attempt + resolve N/A if I feel that resolving this Yes wouldn't be entirely honest/clear)

@Logaems case for having a higher likelihood of success - I've transitioned from being the ever-studying lo-fi girl to a DALL-E-generated version of Quaithe, the mysterious magician and shadowbinder from Asshai in the Shadow lands at the far east of the mapped continent of Essos...

predicted NO

@Logaems I think it would be dishonorable to resolve this N/A; you'd probably be doing it to avoid losses from bad bets. Perform the experiment you described

and resolve to the result. If you're able to determine any details about the Manifest venue that you didn't already know, which are then confirmed by Manifest attendees, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.

predicted YES

@IsaacKing I mean that is not exactly what I had in mind (https://manifold.markets/Logaems/will-i-astral-project-to-manifest#FjXsdq4Rh9QhtHcQdCA4), though it is reasonable for you to assume so. I guess I will perform the experiment and resolve accordingly (in which case I don't see any good reason to assume a Yes outcome) - It's true that if I perceived different details than those of the read Manifest, I wouldn't really "realistically perceive Manifest". However, it is not true that I would resolve the market N/A to avoid losses, as I would lose more by losing the trader bonuses than by placing a bad bet in case of resolving No.

predicted YES

@Logaems The problem is that if the resolution criteria for Yes were exactly reporting correct details of Manifest, that would be in conflict with my previous, vague resolution criteria of the world which I will perceive as "not looking too surreal/ different from reality".

predicted YES

@Logaems And again, that would make the resolution obviously incredibly unlikely to be Yes.

predicted NO

@Logaems Ah, I see what you're saying, apologies for misunderstanding. Ok, if you think the criteria were poorly-phrased or contradictory, N/A seems fine to me. (Though I think the title implies something past just you having a subjective feeling of astral projection.)

predicted NO

@Logaems Let me just say that whomever invests in this market should be able to understand that it's very subjective and open to interpretation. It's a known risk with this kind of markets. This is why I usually stay out of them, but this one seemed clearly overvalued.

predicted YES

If someone else tries this, let me know so we can meet at astral-plane Manifest.

Will you be verifying that the details you see in the astral projection are indeed the correct details at Manifest? (Details that you did not already know in advance.)

predicted YES

@IsaacKing I will, though I don't think that this will work (it is still just a realistic depiction of my (subconscious) expectations about Manifest interpreted by my prefrontal cortex)

predicted YES

I'm diligently practising my astral projecting skills by deeply meditating and perceiving the astral plane...

I'm a witch btw

@Logaems Have you ever successfully astral projected anywhere else before?

(though I'm kinda skeptical of the whole concept of astral projecting...)

@duck_master I have successfully had lucid dreams beginning in the room where I sleep, though I guess "astral projecting" is supposed to feel different (like an "out of body experience"). I would accept these types of lucid dreams as astral projecting, as I'm also not sure, whether "astral projecting" really exists. I'll try though, and imo the self-suggestion will cause me to perceive the state as something like astral projecting.

predicted YES

@Logaems The criteria for Yes are basically just that it begins with the feeling that I am exiting my body and the world which I will be perceiving will not look too surreal/different from reality.